The United Arab Emirates’ decision to withdraw from OPEC is a big deal. The U.A.E. is a global center of finance, tourism and tech built around the cities of Dubai and Abu Dhabi and is considered the financial nerve center of the Gulf. Their finances have been seriously strained by the war; Iran fired over 2,500 drones and missiles at the U.A.E., more than at any other target including Israel. Tourism and business travel have both ground to a halt.
A large part of the U.A.E.’s decision to leave OPEC stemmed from frustration with Saudi Arabia’s domination of OPEC and its policy of restraining member production to keep prices high. The Emirates is only allowed to pump 3.4 million barrels per day while its capacity is 5 million barrels per day.
A further sign of the new Middle East geopolitical landscape is the U.A.E.’s strengthened security cooperation with Israel. In an unprecedented move, Israel sent them its Iron Dome missile-defense technology and Israeli troops to operate it.
This new alignment is redrawing political fault lines between the Arab world and Israel that defined the region for decades. Another Trump victory.